Putin's Second Wave Fiasco
The Conflict between the Second and Third Wave Ideas, go to War.
Russia’s war in Ukraine has highlighted the conflict between the Second and the Third Wave societies. Putin’s Russia is the epitome of a Second Wave nation, while Ukraine represents much that is dynamic in Third Wave societies. We are well into the 21st century and the information age is flexing its muscle. Russia has many technological Third Wave toys, yet they lack a willingness to adapt to Third Wave ideas. Just look at Russia’s dismal performance in the information war, compared to Ukraine which is winning the information war.
Taken in the context provided by futurist Alvin Toffler, the human civilization transitioned through three waves: an agricultural First Wave, an industrial Second Wave, and an information Third Wave. Russia’s war shows with stark contrast the value and resiliency of the Third Wave society like Ukraine in action against the Second Wave system.
The fundamental precept for a Third Wave society is the adherence to democracy and democratic ideals. While Russia under Putin turned away from democracy as it crushed and murdered its fledgling pro-democracy movement, Ukraine’s pro-democracy movement grew out of hard-fought revolutions from the Orange Revolution to the Maidan Revolution. These Ukrainian revolutionaries ushered in a new birth of freedom as opposed to Putin’s authoritarian regime. Putin’s war on Ukraine is fundamentally a move to crush a neighboring Third Wave nation because he views it as a threat to his own backward Second Wave system. Those trying to prop up Second Wave structures hate and fear the Third Wave because they fear and hate the idea of future human progress. Second Wave adherents love technology, but not the human progress it brings with it.
Third Wave societies recognize the limitations of the nation-state, because on the international stage a single country is at a disadvantage, and Russia is finding this out the hard way. Acknowledging the limitations of the nation-state mustn’t be confused with a lack of patriotism, for the Ukrainian people are deeply patriotic. Ukraine’s struggle to preserve its national identity is a long and tragic story, from soviet dictator Joseph Stalin’s genocidal Terror-Famine, the Holodomor, to today’s Putin’s genocidal war against a democratic Ukraine. Second Wave nations almost always try to suppress or control ethnic or racial minorities, born out of an unhealthy fetish for standardization originating in the industrial revolution.
Second Wave systems like Putin’s Russia, struggle because their power is based on a false sense of power and strength. Russia is an example of a Second Wave society that has double-down on a failed Second Wave past, by opting for the proverbial great leader or strong man. Such a system is inherently weak because they are based on outdated hierarchal systems, and doesn’t work as well-matched against a Third Wave society, an information age society open to the decentralization of ideas or more to the point the freedom of ideas. A Third Wave society simply has more brainpower to draw on and in the information age, this is a force multiplier. The Russian Second Wave system is also inherently weak because they are fear-based system. A struggling Second Wave system habitually uses fear of a class of people (minorities, intellectuals, immigrants, or LGBTQ people) to rally against fear and anger. They also use fear in a top-down fashion to threaten, punish or murder the opposition, usually the democratic opposition.
Third Wave society also places a degree of importance on the role of the corporation. By itself, a corporation is neither inherently good nor bad. Much of the hostility expressed against corporations is due to poor corporate leadership or not adhering to Third Wave principles. Such as the principle of not just one bottom line, solely focused on monetary profits, but many bottom lines. People who lead, manage, invest, and work for corporations, still want to make money but want to have expectations they are contributing to civic society, and operating within a moral and or ecological framework. Third Wave society understands that corporations are dynamic business entities that more often can get things done quicker and faster than government. The international corporate response to Putin’s aggression is a proper coherent response by adherents of basic universal human rights and nests with Third Wave principles. The economic pullout and subsequent economic collapse of the Russian economy is a valuable weapon in the democratic world’s fight against Russia. However, as Putin is an economic Statist, and has built the Russian economy with the idea of conflict with the West, we will have to wait and see if Putin’s economy can weather the siege of the international corporate world.
A critical component of Third Wave society is the role of women and minorities. Under Putin, Russia has rejected nearly all aspects that make a Third Wave society thrive in the 21st century. Recognizing the role of women and minorities is critical for transitioning to a dynamic Third Wave society. The nuclear family, a Second Wave creation, is often cited as a must-preserve entity by those who oppose advancing human civilization into the realm of Third Wave society. Putin’s Russia is no different as it has deliberately weakened legal protection for women against domestic abuse. In 2017, domestic abuse was even decriminalized in Russia, in a rejection of a basic human right. Putin’s family values campaign has also targeted the LGBTQ community because they are viewed as a threat to the nuclear family. However, the reality is that the world now sees through Putin’s persona of hyper-masculinity. Yet Putin’s fake macho man image now contrasts with actual tough and brave Ukrainian women.
Ukrainian women, many of whom, have taken up arms to defend against the Russian invasion are much more heroic than a ridiculous bare-chested autocrat. The strength of the Ukrainian women exposes the fraud that is Vladimir Putin.
What Putin’s war against Ukraine finally exposes is a foundational principle for Third Wave ideas: protecting our biosphere. This war highlights the danger to the Earth’s fragile biosphere in many ways. Once the war began to go against Russia, Putin’s started making veiled threats to use nuclear weapons. This is a direct threat to our planet which all inhabitants of the earth should wake up to because it impacts everyone. Our long-term existence as a species now rests on Third Wave ideas prevailing against threats from Second Wave systems. It is imperative Ukraine emerges victorious in the struggle with Putin’s Russia, for Ukraine’s war is our war too. This war also highlights in stark certainty that our reliance on fossil fuels comes at a negative for civilization. The ecological dangers posed by using fossil fuels are a scientific fact, yet we also have the added aspect that so much of the world’s fossil fuel resources are in the hands of authoritarians. From Middle East royal families and Latin American dictators to Putin’s Russia, the authoritarians benefit from preserving Second Wave systems. These autocrats threaten our biosphere in more ways than one, and we need to address each of them if we are to survive as a species. This is why Third Wave concepts are so important, they give us a road map to navigate to a brighter future.
Great article. The conflict between entrenched Second Wave ideas and rising Third Wave progress is also definitely present in Russia, isn't it?